by Ruslan Hubiev (RoSsi BaRBeRa) exclusively for Regrum — translated by Scott Humor
In resolving a conflict in the East of Ukraine there has been a fundamental turn — the President of Russia Vladimir Putin unexpectedly initiated a resolution for the UN Security Council on the deployment of a peacekeeping mission along the demarcation line in the Donbass.
What’s behind this far-reaching suggestion? What geopolitical objectives does Moscow plan to achieve? Why has the President announced his position on the eve of the international assembly, and how is the Kremlin’s initiative connected to military threats currently expressed towards the region of Prednestrovye and LDNR?
Analytics and nuances
On July 24, 2017, a month ago, President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, President of France Emmanuel Macron and Petro Poroshenko have discussed the issues of the international mission at the next negotiations known as the “Normandy format.”
Back then the Ukrainian leader actively complained to journalists that, despite all of his “efforts” to persuade the participants to introduce a peacekeeping mission, he had failed. In particular, he stated that “once again” he will try to introduce “his own” idea at the UN General Assembly on September 12th, and that in his view “the issue again will be rested in the unwillingness to promote peace processes on the part of Russia”.
For months the Western corporate media had been convincing the entire world of Moscow’s unwillingness to make any conciliatory concessions. The public was regularly notified about the refusal of the Russian side “to fulfill the Minsk agreement,” to support the idea of introduction of the peacekeeping mission, or even in general, to become an anti-war pacifist in response to appropriate sanctions “against Russian intervention”.
It was assumed that by this autumn, an effect of shaping up the international outrage will reach a satisfactory level, and the generated inertia will automatically brand Moscow as an “enemy of the European peoples”, as soon as Russia vetoes Kiev’s “peacekeeping” initiative” at September UN Assembly.
And suddenly such a turn! Since the Russian proposal has been submitted first, ahead of Kiev’s, of the General Assembly will consider the Russian version formulated by the Kremlin.To say that this was a bombshell for Kiev and Washington would be an understatement, because, of the similarity in name, an armed contingent of “peacekeepers” that Kiev is pursuing has the diametrically opposite objectives.
First, Kiev wants to locate the peacemakers on the border of LDNR and Russia. Moscow’s plan to locate them between the fighting sides of the Donetsk and Lugansk’s republics armies and the Ukrainian military forces.
Second, according to Kiev, the organization of this mission has to be carried out without a consent of one of the conflicting parties, i.e. Donetsk and Luhansk, while the Russian resolution insists on this condition a priori.
Ukraine expected to receive the peacekeeping mission from the NATO countries that guarantee Kiev a license for use of force. Moscow’s offer implies the broad ethnic composition open to worldwide control.
All points of the U.S.-Ukrainian scenario one way or another are boiled down to a repetition of the Libyan scheme, and resolution, prepared for the UN, was simply to play the role of formal screens, where, under the guise of its legitimacy a new escalation of hostilities would be conducted directly on the Russian borders.
The U.S. negative reaction is also explained by the fact that Washington pinned on the Security Council meeting and “Ukrainian” “peace” initiative practically all fall of 2017 scenarios for Donbass and Transnistria. In particular, the final withdrawal of Ukraine from its previously signed Minsk agreements has been deliberately held until the end of this summit, although the decision for the withdrawal was initiated by the United States immediately after the visit to Kiev of the special envoy from Washington D.C., Kurt Volker.
It was after his visit to Ukraine, Kiev launched a large-scale preparation of a new law “on reintegration” of the Donbass, involving the replacement of a definition the “anti-terrorist operation (ATO)”, with the “defense of Ukraine operation.” Also, in this new law the definition “terrorists” are being replaced with “the aggressor,” and the local operation of a limited contingent if being replaced with possible introduction of martial law throughout the entire territory of Ukraine.
According to the new document that is being developed by the US and Kiev authorities, the governments of the republics, and their decisions are recognized as illegitimate, and themselves LDNR described as a territory “occupied by Russia”.
Characteristically, the adoption of this law package was planned immediately after the end of the meetings of the General Assembly. This fall is also an expiration date for the term of the current law “on the special status of Donbass”. This fall has also been planned the delivery of military assistance from the Pentagon. This fall also is being planned an incremental compounding and worsening of the situation in Transnistria including the supervised by the West blockade of the TMR. Even Moldova was going to take part in the UN Security Council and submit a proposal against the peacekeeping mission of Russia.
Discovered in the vicinity of the Ukrainian village Sahanka “BUK M-1” launchers with rockets targeting the Taganrog Bay,[location of the Russian naval base and seaport in the Azov Sea, S.H] increased deployment of the Ukrainian armed forces on the demarcation line with the republics, a sharp change in Kiev’s political rhetoric for the military idea of “Croatian scenario”, approved by the acquiescence of the United States. All this and much more clearly indicate the plans of the large scale provocation and “hot” instability in two strategic regions of Russia, comes autumn. Both tasks chronologically coordinated and clearly planned in conjunction with the “Ukrainian” resolution and its promotion in the UN.
This is also supported by the fact that for the US these projects would solve a whole range of geopolitical problems. First, they want to worsen the dramatically improving Russian-European relations, and changing their neutral positions for a strictly Pro-American. A new conflict, for whatever reason it may starts, guaranteed would have led the EU to their usual weak-willed foreign policy positions: “Russia did not keep the republics from escalation,” “Ukraine needs to be called upon the international community to peace”, but “initiative for a new anti-Russian sanctions should be maintained.”
In addition, the United States probably would undertake a revision of the scope and effectiveness of the imposed sanctions, and to triple the pressure to block the construction of “Nord Stream — 2”, as well as to inflate pressure on the EU to buy LNG supplies for the European markets.
Kiev would agree with the aggravation of the existing situation, given a degree of political tension and pressure on Poroshenko is growing every day. This escalation would let him once again to accuse Russia in aggression and to write off all domestic social problems and to blame them on Moscow. He also will be able to solve his another big problem, to suppress the resistance of some groups among the political elite to initiate an introduction of martial law, to abolish parliamentary elections, and also to extend his powers to unlimited proportions.
In this regard, there is no doubt that the proposal of Vladimir Putin about the deployment of peacekeepers according to the Russian model was aimed at preventing these scenarios, and is nothing more than an attempt of the Russian leadership to create a political tool for tipping the US ideas of war back to a diplomatic solution.
Along with everything else, Russia’s initiative offers an opportunity to fix the current demarcation line by protecting the Republic of LPR and DPR from military actions and provocations by Kiev. The document explicitly stipulates the withdrawal of heavy military equipment, extension and amendments of the law “on special status of Donbass”, as well as the deployment of the “blue helmets” to separate the sides in the unfolding conflict to protect the OSCE mission. Not, as Kiev wants, to separate the territory of Donetsk and Lugansk from the Russia’s border.
In addition, this new diplomatic initiative of the Kremlin to freeze the West’s plans for military escalation of the Ukrainian armed forces against the army of Lugansk and Donetsk republics and their territories does not allow to synchronize this with the destabilizing scenario around Moldova and Transnistria. The resolution also allows to stop supply and deliveries of the of foreign weapons, and to demonstrate at the highest international level that the format of the ongoing war in Ukraine is that of a civil war. The legitimization of the status of national republics as political entities is also an issue introduced by the Russian Federation by this document, as the main principle of UN peacekeeping missions implies the approval for deployment of the contingent from all warring parties.
Moreover, even in a case that some of the states will be reluctant to initiate a public dialogue with Donetsk and Lugansk directly, the interests of the republics, within the rules of the UN, will still be expressed and defended by the mediation of Russia. Moscow resolution demonstrates a clear desire of the Kremlin to find a peaceful resolution of the conflict. The probable veto by the US, on the contrary, would show lack of interest of other parties in the non-military outcome of the situation.
It is also important that the activity of the UN Security Council, including those concerning consideration of the Russian initiative, will be broadcasted throughout the world, and, therefore, will provide Europe with a much-needed support and justification for further relaxation of relations with Moscow without a guaranteed threat of deterioration of relations with the “allied” America. In this respect, it’s no coincidence that the first international response to Vladimir Putin’s statement came from Germany, where the German foreign Minister noted the initiative as “a new detente with Moscow”, and also said that since Russia “changed its policy on Ukraine,” this moment “Europe must not miss”.
As a result, Kiev and its curators are now in a difficult situation. Moscow has seized the initiative and put the American plans for this fall under a big question mark. The Minsk agreements remain in force, the new Ukrainian law on “reintegration” is postponed, and Russia has every reason to declare that it has done everything necessary for implementation of the peace process, while supervised by the West, Kiev is working on their outright failure.
News in brief
- In a case of malicious prosecution and abuse of process, Ukraine prepares to file complaints against Russia with everyone out of six main UN committees.
They are also going to protests against Russia’s peacekeepers proposal.
- The 79th Air Assault Brigade, a formation of the Ukrainian Airmobile Forces, is being deployed to Donbass.
As a reminder, it was the 79th Air Assault Brigade that conducted assaults and attacks on Donetsk and Lugansk in 2014.
- The American Naval Forces are currently construct a military base in Ochakovo, Ukraine located only 150 kilometers from Crimean coastline.
The Entire Black Sea Coast of Ukraine Will Become a US Military Base
- Zaporozhskaya nuclear plant held emergency drills on September 5 to 8. The US instructors, not familiar with this type of stations, were teaching the station employees to deal with emergency situations on the station.
- Poroshenko delivered a speech on September 7th in Rada.
Address of the President of Ukraine to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine “On the internal and external situation of Ukraine in 2017”
Poroshenko claims that all the economic problems stem from three years of war with Russia.
He has also opposed Russia’s peacekeepers proposal to the UN Assembly and promised to demand a rejection. He wants NATO peacekeepers located everywhere on the territory of Donetsk and Lugansk republics and on the border with Russia.
According to the original United Nations Peacekeeping Operations principles and guidelines, peacekeepers are located between two sides of a conflict with their both explicit consent. Russia is not a side of an armed conflict in Ukraine, which is between the populations of the Donetsk and Lugansk republics and the post-Maidan Kiev regime.
- The former Prime Minister of Ukraine added that the most disturbing in Poroshenko’s speech was the Ukrainian leader’s rejection of the offer of Russia for the introduction of a UN Mission on the Minsk agreed demarcation line in Donbass.
- American companies are offered 90% of contracts for the restoration of the infrastructure of Donbass destroyed by war
What sum can the West give for the restoration of Donbass?
“… the West will give nothing to us. The fund for the restoration of Donbass that Poroshenko creates, as far as I understand, isn’t filled up in any way because Americans are not idiots, they perfectly understand what happens to money here in Ukraine. All this money, certainly, will pass through American structures to other American structures. Everything that Ukraine will received as a result is restored infrastructure. But it’s not Ukrainian structures, but American ones that will earn on these infrastructure projects. This money will fly by Ukrainian hands and will not stick to them.”
Stalker Zone note:
It is becoming increasingly overt how the US’ creeping direct capture of Ukrainian territory (over the past 20+ years the US has used hands inside Ukraine to achieve this) is taking shape. Much like how over a dozen US military bases “magically” popped up in north Syria, and how nearly 50 somehow appeared in Africa, the US first uses proxy forces to bulldoze a path for the complete seizure of State power, and when these forces are exhausted and it’s perceived to be safe to come out from behind the curtain, the GI Joe boots on the ground arrive under the guise of “protecting democracy” and repelling some “threat” invented by the Military-Industrial Complex and powerful lobbying structures. The result? US military bases and corporations deeply entrenched from the head to the foot of the Ukrainian land controlled by Kiev. It can safely be assumed that the same or a similar plan is being hatched for Venezuela…
An analysis was written by Yuri Baranchik who looks into reasons for Berlin to side with Moscow in Ukraine, and in terms of the construction of the Nord Stream 2.
It could be just an election season, and it could be a realistic understanding that the US led policies will inevitably bring a decline of Germany. In addition, emboldened by the US, Poland and the Baltic republics, former parts of the USSR, started acting towards Germany in similar ways Ukrainian authorities have been acting towards Russia.
Yuri Baranchik brings up an interesting point that the US might be trying to engineer an artificial energy crisis in Europe to use it in conjunction with the islamists revolt. An army of islamists that is currently relocated to Europe will be using the US and NATO military bases for weapons and other supplies, and for the intelligence and command support like they do in the Middle East.
It’s questionable that Russia will be available to help the Europeans, though.
- Merkel compared the return of Crimea to Ukraine with reunification of Germany.
AS REPORTED BY Front News International and if indeed, this translation is true, it’s a case of extreme Western hypocrisy.
"Berlin: German Chancellor Angela Merkel compared the annexation of the Crimea to divided Germany, arguing that the statements of the GDR would be unacceptable that there is nothing to be done with the division, and unification is impossible. "If now, for example, I will hear that the Russian annexation of the Crimea should simply be accepted, then I think: what would have happened if in the former GDR if they had been declared the same, adhering to the principle: "Germany is divided, nothing can be done about it," Merkel said to the German edition of Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung. She also cited the words of Christian Lindner that the annexation of the Crimea should be taken as "temporary, but on a long-term basis".
The return of Crimea and its people to Russia is a reunification of Russia. The Russian nation is the biggest divided nation on earth. Twenty-five million Russians live on territories of Russia that were separated in violation of existed Constitution of the USSR.
In addition, no one declared The Act of Capitulation of Germany invalid. No one has cancelled this act.
For example, “5. In the event of the German High Command or any of the forces under their control failing to act in accordance with this Act of Surrender, the Supreme Commander, Allied Expeditionary Force and the Supreme High Command of the Red Army will take such punitive or other action as they deem appropriate.”
It was Germany that violated the post World War II order and changed established European borders. It because of the unlawful actions of Germany the USSR (Soviet Russia) was ripped apart, followed by Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia, in its wake.
In light of an ongoing German aggression against Russia and Russian people, the question of legitimacy of the action of Germany could be addressed considering the imposing conditions.
- The Steadfast Pyramid 2017 military exercise kicks off in Latvia on Sunday, with 40 senior commanders from NATO states, as well as Finland and Sweden. They are expected to train how to “plan and conduct operations” amid the bloc’s buildup in the region.
Steadfast Pyramid 2017 and Steadfast Pinnacle 2017, involving more than 40 senior officers from NATO member states, plus Finland and Sweden, will take place at the Riga-based Latvian Defense Academy, the country’s national news agency LETA reported on Sunday.
Director of Research and Development
author of The enemy of the State
In case you have forgotten what happened in Ukraine, this book should refresh your memory with the incredibly precise and humorous chronicles: ANTHOLOGY OF RUSSIAN HUMOR: FROM MAIDAN TO TRUMP